The motivation is, I believe, different, but I am always reminded of that rugby team when people say that Dick Spring's Labour Party "won" the 1992 election, and again when they say that Enda Kenny's Fine Gael "won" the 2007 one.

Certainly, both were fine performances, but, to switch to a soccer analogy, it is the team with the highest score, not the team that put together the best moves, or which showed the most improvement, which is deemed to have won the match.

Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fail have won the 2007 election.

However, just possibly, an even distribution of the FF first preferences might have brought it off if the other votes had been distributed differently e.g if, say, Gregory had polled a bit better, Costello a little worse.

Meanwhile, in Willie O'Dea's Limerick East, a 5-seater,FF and PD had 55%, FG/Lab 36%. (Greens had 3%).Guess which combination got 3 seats ? FG/Lab.

With a more even spread of FF votes, the result would almost certainly have been different. Even without the PD, they had 48.7%,very nearly 3 quotas.

Whatever about De Bert, Willie let his side down. I suspect that others may also have similar questions to answer, not just in FF.

FF 78

FG 51

Labour 20

Greens 6

SF 4

PD 2

Others 5.

Note that the above correctly sums to 166, unlike the previous tables which totalled 165 and 167.

Bertie Ahern is keeping his cards close to his chest in relation to how he plans to form his next government, but has been stressing stability. This requires him to carefully assess whether he could rely on the Greens as partners, or whether the extra concessions, and very hard work, needed to successfully get Labour to do a deal,would be worth it. I am inclined to think that he may end up simply keeping the PDs, sweet-talking some independents, and trusting in his ability to keep the others from finding a common cause sufficient to bring him down.

Stability may not be as assured as before the election, but no-one may notice the difference.

FF 79

FG 49

Labour 20

Greens 6

SF 4

PD 2

Others 5.

Prominent casualties:

Michael McDowell

Liz O'Donnell

Tom Parlon

Tim O'Malley

Fiona O'Malley

Joe Higgins

Liam Twomey

Jerry Cowley

Dan Boyle (almost certainly)

Denis O'Donovan

Breda Moynihan-Cronin

Donie Cassidy.

There is not much risk to the FF total, FG could get a couple more.

There will be FF/PD minority, or FF/Green, government. The Labour looks too difficult for FF by comparison, though it would offer advantages.

The next General Election is likely to be sooner than the maximum 5-years.

Why was my morning figure wrong ?

1. FF, FG and Labour each got a bigger seat "bonus" (i.e. greater % of seats than of votes) than I expected.

2. SF performed badly and got less seats even than their lower % of votes would have indicated.

3. PDs and "Others" worse even than I expected

4. I was more optimistic for smaller parties' share than the eventual outcome, and vice-versa for FG and Lab.

A noteworthy feature is that the ego trips of Willie O'Dea and Bertie Ahern cost FF another two-seat bonus.

Otherwise, Fine Gael's remarkable revival has to acknowledged as a remarkable, stunning achievement.

If only they had something to offer !

FF 72

FG 39

Lab 18

SF 17

Green 10

PD 4

Others 7.

In other words: as forecast , FF/Lab is only practical government combination

1. Tom Parlon

2. The citizenship Referendum

3. The Treatment of Frank Connolly

4. Mae Sexton

5. Tim O'Malley

6. Tom Morrissey

7. Michael McDowell

8. Noel Grealish

9. Harney giving Noel Treacy job overseeing his financiers

10. Ridiculous stamp duty campaign

11. Harney's strange view of what a contract is

12. Harney's muzzling clause

13. McDowell's unhealthy relationship with Sam Smyth

1. Bankless Bertie

2. The electronic voting debacle

3. Repeated refusals to accept responsibility

6. Use of Shannon by U.S.

7. Noel Ahern

8. John McGuinness

9. GV Wright ( Yes, I know he's not standing this time)

10. Support for McDowell re. Frank Connolly

11. Paisley's support

12. Blair's support

13. Billions wasted

14. Noel Treacy - lied to the public or to the Mahon Tribunal, took job as regulator of industry who financed his campaign

15. The Galway tent

16. Ridiculous cave-in on stamp duty

17. The Brian Cowen/Tony O'Reilly conspiracy

In no particular order:

1. Enda Kenny

2. Liam Twomey

3. Graham Geraghty

4. Brian Hayes

5. Damien English

6. That ridiculous "contract"

7. Those disgraceful posters on bail

8. Kenny's refusal to stop U.S. use of Shannon for Iraq

(see "Village" current issue)

9. FG support of McDowell re Frank Connolly

10. Mairead McGuinness

11. Olivia Mitchell

12. No visible front bench

13. Ridiculous stance on stamp duty

In the last decade, government has surrendered control of the regulation of various markets e.g. telephony, taxis, electricity, to government-appointed but "independent" regulators over whom the politicians have no power or influence.

Left-wingers generally do not like this, but even the Right has been confounded by the failure of some regulators to bring about some desirable things, such as wider availability of broadband.

Now - or, rather yesterday - The Irish Times reports that McDowell has identified this as an issue for the election, and has included it in his party's manifesto.

Regardless of the merits of the PD proposals, I think that they should be welcomed and that the other parties might usefully respond with their own approaches to the problem he has identified.