Of Laws and Men

The polls have closed, but the ballot boxes are still sealed. It's time to prognosticate.Fresh from the, er, triumph of my 2007 predictions, I offer here my guesses for the results of the European Elections in four of the Irish constituencies. (I am ashamed, as someone with 1/4 Belfast blood, and with quite a few friends and relatives over the border, to confess that I have not followed the campaign in the occupied territories at all).

OVERVIEW

This election takes place in circumstances without precedent. The most prosperous period ever in Ireland has come to a most unpleasant end. Both domestic and international cirumstances have conspired in a vicious way, resulting in deflation, tax hikes, bank failures, job losses and pay cuts.

Just before the crash, the politician most identified with the boom, Bertie Ahern, left office as Taoiseach (Prime Minister) to be succeeded by the man who was Finance Minister for the previous five years. Almost immediately, things started to go wrong.

The Government is a coalition mainly composed of his party, Fianna Fail, and the Green Party. The latter is new and small (national support 5-10% at best) but Fianna Fail, founded by De Valera, has dominated Irish politics for 80 years and for all of that long time until recent months, when polls suggest it only has 20-25%, could rely on support of 38-47%. Even 12 months ago, its opinion poll rating was above 40%.

(It should be noted that a 20% share of the vote will normally be sufficient to ensure one seat per constituency in our multi-seat proportional representation system.)

The question here is whether incumbent Eoin Ryan (FF) can hold on in the face of the collapse in his party's support, and poor showing in the opinion polls, and if not, who will take his seat.I incline to think that he will not - though I will not be surprised if I am wrong - and that rogue Green former M.E.P. Patricia McKenna will sneak in, joining Mitchell and de Rossa as the new M.E.P.s. If I am wrong about McKenna, Socialist Joe Higgins may benefit, or it might even be Deirdre de Burca (Green). I am pretty certain that Sinn Fein's McDonald will succumb to the concerted onslaught against her.

In this constituency, Fine Gael have two, Fianna Fail one, but one of the FG incumbents has retired and the Labour candidate, a former Green, but with a splendid Fianna Fail pedigree, is likely to take the third seat.

I predict McGuinness, Aylward and Childers.

South

My sense is that sitting Independent Sinnott will lose her seat. The question is: who will replace her ? Labour is probably the most likely, but I will not be astonished if FG take a second, and Senator Dan Boyle (Green) may surprise everyone, despite a late start to his campaign.

Prediction: Crowley, Kelly, Kelly.

North/West

Currently represented by one FF, one FG and Independent Marian Harkin, the main questions here are whether Libertas's Declan Ganley can make it, and if he does, whether it will be Harkin or FF (whose sitting MEP is retiring) that lose out.

I don't think Ganley will make it, though it might be closer than polls suggest, so I expect Higgins, Gallagher and Harkin to be elected.